Covering the Land of Lincoln

Illinois vs. Missouri prediction, odds, pick

The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Missouri Tigers in St. Louis. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Illinois Missouri prediction and pick.

The Braggin’ Rights game is annually one of the most contentious, lively, fiercely-played games in college basketball. Illinois and Missouri gather in St. Louis for a game which regularly draws a good crowd and generates a lot of energy. Both schools look forward to this game and get after it on the court.

Illinois defeated UCLA one month ago and beat Texas a few weeks ago. The Illini have shown what they can be when they are at their best. Coach Brad Underwood has been able to piece together a formidable roster after the departure of big man Kofi Cockburn. However, while Illinois has some great high-end wins on its resume, the Illini have also endured some bad losses. They face-planted at home to Penn State. They struggled for a long time with Alabama A&M in their most recent game before pulling away late. Illinois is an erratic, volatile team with a high ceiling and a low floor. The variance between this team’s best and worst iterations is vast, and that’s why it’s really hard to trust this team at NCAA Tournament time. Illinois has been like this in recent seasons, and it seems this team is going to fit the prevailing pattern.

The Illini are powered by two high-profile transfers, guard Terrence Shannon from Texas Tech and fellow transfer Matthew Mayer from Baylor. It is clear that Illinois is still learning how to play together. The Illini have to deal with the rough edges which define them before they enter the teeth of the Big Ten season.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Illinois-Missouri College Basketball odds.

College Basketball Odds: Illinois-Missouri Odds

Illinois Fighting Illinois: -6.5 (-105)

Missouri Tigers: +6.5 (-115)

Over: 152.5 (-115)

Under: 152.5 (-105)

Why Illinois Could Cover the Spread

The Illini are going against a Missouri team which has not tested itself very much in nonconference play. Missouri played a very soft schedule to start its season: Southern Indiana, Pennsylvania, Lindenwood, SIU-Edwardsville, Mississippi Valley State, Coastal Carolina, and Houston Christian. When Missouri finally went up against an elite team — Kansas — it got blown off the floor by 28 points. Missouri wanted a nonconference schedule in which it could accumulate wins. The Tigers didn’t value high-level challenges. They were underprepared for the Kansas game. They’re likely to be underprepared for this game against Illinois.

There’s zero question the Illini will be prepared for the Tigers. Illinois has played Texas, UCLA, Virginia, Maryland, Syracuse, and Penn State, among others. The Illini should be able to adjust to Mizzou much more easily than the Tigers will be able to adjust to them.

Why Missouri Could Cover the Spread

The Tigers needed that Kansas game as a chance to truly learn how good — and how limited — they are. Beating Lindenwood and Coastal Carolina doesn’t teach an SEC team where it stands in the larger workings of college basketball. Playing Kansas is a true revealer, and the Tigers learned how much work they truly had to do. Missouri wants to beat Kansas more than anything, so hurt the loss in the Border War game. However, that game should make Missouri a much better, much more alert, much more focused team for this game versus Illinois. The spread gives Mizzou several points, and this figures to be a close game. The Tigers have to like their chances of covering the spread.

Final Illinois-Missouri Prediction & Pick

This figures to be a close game, so if one team is getting 6.5 points in a close game, that’s the team you should pick. Illinois is better, but this is a rivalry game, and Missouri is going to play with great energy, keeping the game tight and bothering Illinois’ halfcourt offense.

Final Illinois-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Missouri +6.5

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